Deep groundwater mediates streamflow response to climate warming in the Oregon Cascades

Recent studies predict that projected climate change will lead to significant reductions in summer streamflow in the mountainous regions of the Western US. Hydrologic modeling directed at quantifying these potential changes has focused on the magnitude and timing of spring snowmelt as the key control on the spatial–temporal pattern of summer streamflow. We illustrate how spatial differences in groundwater dynamics can also play a significant role in determining streamflow responses to warming. We examine two contrasting watersheds, one located in the Western Cascades and the other in the High Cascades mountains of Oregon. We use both empirical analysis of streamflow data and physically based, spatially distributed modeling to disentangle the relative importance of multiple and interacting controls. In particular, we explore the extent to which differences in snow accumulation and melt and drainage characteristics (deep ground water vs. shallow subsurface) mediate the effect of climate change. Results show that within the Cascade Range, local variations in bedrock geology and concomitant differences in volume and seasonal fluxes of subsurface water will likely result in significant spatial variability in responses to climate forcing. Specifically, watersheds dominated by High Cascade geology will show greater absolute reductions in summer streamflow with predicted temperature increases. Climatic Change (2008) 86:189–210 DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9294-8 C. Tague (*) : J. Choate Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California at Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA e-mail: [email protected] G. Grant USDA Forest Service, Corvallis, OR, USA M. Farrell Department of Geography, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA A. Jefferson Department of Geoscience, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA